This paper addresses structured out-of-distribution (OOD) testing in high-stakes machine learning applications. Traditional conformal methods rely on joint exchangeability, making it difficult to incorporate auxiliary information such as spatiotemporal or grouping structures. To overcome this limitation, we propose the structure-adaptive conformal q-value (SCQ), a significance index that integrates individual test evidence with structural patterns. We also develop pseudo-score-guided transductive automated model selection (P-TAMS), which adapts conformalized model selection to structured OOD testing across a toolbox of candidate models. Together, SCQ and P-TAMS form a unified framework under pairwise exchangeability, providing finite-sample error-rate control, improved power, and enhanced interpretability. Experiments on simulated and real data demonstrate that the proposed approach controls the false discovery rate and performs well across diverse settings.

Time series forecasting models often exhibit inconsistent performance across datasets with varying statistical and structural properties. Despite the wide range of available forecasting techniques, it remains unclear whether model selection can be reliably guided by simple data characteristics. This paper investigates why rule-based model selection fails in time series forecasting by analyzing the relationship between data-regime descriptors and model performance. A descriptor-based framework is introduced to characterize time series using measurable properties, including trend strength, seasonality, noise level, and temporal dependence. Based on these descriptors, a rule-based selection mechanism is formulated to map data regimes to candidate forecasting models. The approach is evaluated on multiple real-world datasets across different domains and forecasting horizons. The results show that rule-based model selection achieves low accuracy, with correct model identification occurring in only a small fraction of cases. Significant discrepancies are observed between recommended and empirically optimal models, particularly in noisy and mixed regimes. Further analysis reveals that model performance is highly sensitive to both dataset characteristics and forecasting horizon, resulting in substantial ranking instability across scenarios. These findings explain why simple heuristic rules fail to generalize and demonstrate that forecasting performance cannot be reliably predicted using static, descriptor-based approaches. This study provides empirical evidence that model selection in time series forecasting is inherently context-dependent and highlights the need for more adaptive, data-driven strategies.

The marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is regarded as a mathematical embodiment of Occam's razor, enabling model selection that avoids overfitting. The evidence lower bound (ELBO) objective from variational inference has also been used for similar purposes. Prior work has shown that restricting the approximate posterior family via a mean-field approximation can lead the ELBO to underfit. In this paper, we show how ELBO-based hyperparameter learning in a simple over-parameterized regression model can also produce overfitting, depending on the assumed rank of the covariance matrix in a Gaussian approximate posterior. Surprisingly, among only the underfit and overfit options, Bayesian model selection via the evidence itself sometimes prefers the overfit version, while the ELBO does not. Bayesian practitioners hoping to scale to large models should be cautious about how reduced-rank assumptions needed for tractability may impact the potential for model selection.

The recent explosion of interest in multimodal applications has resulted in a wide selection of datasets and methods for representing and integrating information from different modalities. Despite these empirical advances, there remain fundamental research questions: How can we quantify the interactions that are necessary to solve a multimodal task? Subsequently, what are the most suitable multimodal models to capture these interactions? To answer these questions, we propose an information-theoretic approach to quantify the degree of redundancy, uniqueness, and synergy relating input modalities with an output task. We term these three measures as the PID statistics of a multimodal distribution (or PID for short), and introduce two new estimators for these PID statistics that scale to high-dimensional distributions. To validate PID estimation, we conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic datasets where the PID is known and on large-scale multimodal benchmarks where PID estimations are compared with human annotations. Finally, we demonstrate their usefulness in (1) quantifying interactions within multimodal datasets, (2) quantifying interactions captured by multimodal models, (3) principled approaches for model selection, and (4) three real-world case studies engaging with domain experts in pathology, mood prediction, and robotic perception where our framework helps to recommend strong multimodal models for each application.

Given an unsupervised outlier detection task on a new dataset, how can we automatically select a good outlier detection algorithm and its hyperparameter(s) (collectively called a model)? In this work, we tackle the unsupervised outlier model selection (UOMS) problem, and propose METAOD, a principled, data-driven approach to UOMS based on meta-learning. The UOMS problem is notoriously challenging, as compared to model selection for classification and clustering, since (i) model evaluation is infeasible due to the lack of hold-out data with labels, and (ii) model comparison is infeasible due to the lack of a universal objective function. METAOD capitalizes on the performances of a large body of detection models on historical outlier detection benchmark datasets, and carries over this prior experience to automatically select an effective model to be employed on a new dataset without any labels, model evaluations or model comparisons. To capture task similarity within our meta-learning framework, we introduce specialized metafeatures that quantify outlying characteristics of a dataset. Extensive experiments show that selecting a model by METAOD significantly outperforms no model selection (e.g.

We study adaptive pooling under predictive heterogeneity in high-dimensional multivariate time series forecasting, where global models improve statistical efficiency but may fail to capture heterogeneous predictive structure, while naive specialization can induce negative transfer. We formulate adaptive pooling as a statistical decision problem and propose a validation-driven framework that determines when and how specialization should be applied. Rather than grouping series based on representation similarity, we define partitions through out-of-sample predictive performance, thereby aligning data organization with predictive risk, defined as expected out-of-sample loss and approximated via validation error. Cluster assignments are iteratively updated using validation losses for both point (Huber) and probabilistic (pinball) forecasting, improving robustness to heavy-tailed errors and local anomalies. To ensure reliability, we introduce a leakage-free fallback mechanism that reverts to a global model whenever specialization fails to improve validation performance, providing a safeguard against performance degradation under a strict training-validation-test protocol. Experiments on large-scale traffic datasets demonstrate consistent improvements over strong baselines while avoiding degradation when heterogeneity is weak. Overall, the proposed framework provides a principled and practically reliable approach to adaptive pooling in high-dimensional forecasting problems.

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